%0 Journal Article
%T The Texas Sharpshooter in the Three Grand Tours (1933-2013): No Evidence for Superior Time Trial Performances in the ¡°Epo Era¡±
%A Hein F. M. Lodewijkx
%A Peter Verboon
%J Open Access Library Journal
%V 1
%N 8
%P 1-12
%@ 2333-9721
%D 2014
%I Open Access Library
%R 10.4236/oalib.1101045
%X Studies examining effects of doping in professional
road racing building on archival records of the three major European stage
races¡ªthe
Tour de France, Giro d¡¯Italia, and Vuelta a Espana¡ªcon- cluded that riders¡¯
final performances in the ¡°epo era¡± (>1990) strongly improved, yet declined
since 2004. These observations can be criticized. First, we argue that time
trial performances are more valid than final performances to indirectly
evaluate doping effects. Second, we will pay attention to an informal logical
flaw¡ªthe <i>Texas sharpshooter fallacy</i>¡ªwhich may have biased findings and
conclusions presented in the studies. To empirically substantiate our critique,
we analyzed mean kilometers per hour (km/h) performances realized by winning
riders in all time trials on flat and rolling terrain in the three tours (1933-2013, <i>N </i>= 325)<i>. </i>Regression
analyses revealed no evidence for nonlinear in- or decreases in riders¡¯ speed
beyond the 1990s, but a straightforward linear progress over time of <i>b =</i> 0.16 km/h per year (<i>R</i><sup>2</sup> = 0.50, <i>p</i> ¡Ü 0.001). Findings
corroborate our comments on previous archival studies and qualify opinions
about effects of the ¡°epo epidemic¡± on cyclists¡¯ achievements, since the time
trial performances delivered in these years are no exemption to the observed
linear progress in speed.
%K Epo Doping
%K Multi¨CStage Cycling Races
%K Professional Road Racing
%K Time Trials
%U http://www.oalib.com/paper/3126053